The 2026 midterm elections changed the political dynamics in our country drastically and a new Congress takes office in January. Many people across the U.S. are in a celebratory mood, and for good reason! Voters sent a strong message: they want leaders who will protect healthcare and the safety net, stand up against ICE abuses, and end the war with Iran.
Although these midterms are historic, the work of stopping the slide into autocracy is far from over. The president still controls much of what happens day to day—from military actions with Iran to how ICE agents operate in our communities. He has also promised to veto legislation he opposes. That makes accountability essential.
Congress can use its oversight and budget powers to check abuses, but only if communities keep up the pressure on elected officials. As the new Congress takes office and sets its priorities in the coming months, we have a critical window to shape what comes next.
How do we assess what these changes mean for our communities? How can we best organize? How can we find our opportunities to shape a future that values peace, human needs, and dignity for all?
One tool we can use is shared analysis for action, based on the concepts of conjunctural analysis. Here’s what you need to know.
1. What is conjunctural analysis?
Structural analysis looks at the long-term aspects of our society that seem unmovable, such as racism, sexism, homophobia, and classism.
Conjunctural analysis looks at something different: temporary moments of rupture or crisis in our world. This analysis examines moments when the dynamic forces of political, economic, and ideological power have shifted, and offers us the chance to find openings for change.
In the summer of 2020, as communities across the U.S. protested the police killing of George Floyd, Angela Davis described one such moment:
"One never knows when conditions may give rise to a conjuncture such as the current one, that rapidly shifts popular consciousness and suddenly allows us to move in the direction of radical change." — Angela Davis on Democracy Now, June 12, 2020
Within weeks, demands that had once been dismissed as fringe, like reallocating police budgets, were now being considered in cities across the country. Organizers who seized on that opportunity won changes that would have been unthinkable just a year earlier. Conjectural analysis is a tool that helps us recognize these moments—like the one we are in today—and act before they close.
Within weeks, demands that had once been dismissed as fringe, like reallocating police budgets, were now being considered in cities across the country. Organizers who seized on that opportunity won changes that would have been unthinkable just a year earlier. Conjectural analysis is a tool that helps us recognize these moments—like the one we are in today—and act before they close.
2. Where do these ideas come from?
These concepts have their roots in the work of Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci. He was trying to understand why Italian peasants supported Mussolini in the 1920s, when this appeared to go against their class interests. He concluded that those in power stay in power not just through force or coercion, but by convincing people to accept things the way they are. When a crisis upends that belief, change becomes possible.
AFSC and others have built upon these ideas while combining them with learnings shaped by Brazilian educator Paulo Freire. Freire developed concepts of popular education while in exile during Brazili’s military dictatorship that started in the 1960’s. Popular education is a method of collective action for change is based in the belief that we are all teachers and learners. In this methodology, communities build analysis together rather than receiving it from others considered “experts.”
Together, these ideas have helped us shape the practice of shared analysis of the historic moment to help communities create change.
3. How has it been used in organizing for change?
Influenced by our work with the Latin American Sanctuary movement, AFSC started to use these concepts in Chicago in the ’90s as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was being negotiated. We were helping local union members understand how their circumstances were connected to the global economy and NAFTA. We were using Gramsci’s idea that a historic moment or rupture offered moments for change.
Also influenced by Freire, we knew the importance of developing the analysis together in the community. We worked in partnership with many other organizations working against neoliberal economic policies across the U.S. and Canada. Conjunctural analysis was used by many communities to discover openings for change on the local, national, and even international level.
Since then, a range of AFSC campaigns—from organizing tenants to stop evictions in North Carolina to advocating against surveillance of Muslim communities in Chicago—have used conjunctural analysis to identify paths forward.
4. How can I use this in my community?
A good starting point is to use the “Political Weather Report” tool from Deb Barndt’s “ Naming the Moment” manual. I’ve used this tool many times over the years, and it is particularly good to use quarterly or even monthly during an active campaign. Following our Freirean model, this is a process of building collective knowledge or a shared analysis. That way, we are all on the same page when we start to identify opportunities for action and the challenges that face us.
Here is my simplified version:
Work with your community to analyze the moment. Write the goal you are working toward in the center circle (ending your county’s contract with ICE or getting rid of a data center, for example). Then name trends and events that are happening right now, or within a set time period like the last one to three months, that either help or harm us as we work toward that goal.
Here is an example from a campaign working to end the surveillance of Muslim communities:
This was from 2018, and you can see that we are analyzing trends and events locally, nationally, and internationally. Another thing you might notice is that, in general, the things that help us are different from the things that harm us. But the Muslim ban was listed on both sides. It was obviously harmful because it hurt communities and tore families apart. But it was also helpful in exposing the anti-Muslim racism in our national security policies, and in bringing more people to our cause.
Sometimes two opposing ideas can both be true, and that is called a contradiction. Contradictions can be powerful sites of change, so pay attention to them!
5. How can I learn more?
Come to our Protect, Resist, and Build webinar on Nov. 17 (8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT) to learn more. We’ll be delving into these concepts further. We’ll hear from organizers and share concrete tools you can use to analyze the current moment and others as they develop. Register now.
- I hope to see you there. I also encourage to explore these resources:
- “Prison Notebooks,” by Antonio Gramsci (1947): A highly influential text that distinguishes between the long-term, structural aspects of society and its dynamic and short-term conjunctural aspects.
- “Naming the Moment,” by Deb Barndt (1989): A foundational text that brings Gramsci’s ideas to an activist community in a practical, clearly written way. Informed by work on the NAFTA agreement. Published by the Jesuit Centre for Social Faith and Justice in Toronto.
- “Coyuntural Analysis: Critical Thinking for Meaningful Action,” by Mary Zerkel (1997). Built upon Deb Barndt’s manual and informed by work in multiple communities across Chicago, as well as the work of Paulo Freire and Augusto Boal. Includes many concrete exercises and examples. Published by AFSC.
- “Ultra-Red Volume 1: Naming the Moment (2024)”: This journal issue explores conjunctural analysis with three popular educators in North America who developed a body of literature meant to guide radical groups through the practice. Conversations with Chris Cavanaugh from the Catalyst Centre in Toronto, Mary Zerkel from AFSC in Chicago, and Gustavo Castro Soto, in Chiapas, Mexico.
